The First Jobs Report Since the Hike, Micron, and Nike's Reset
A dense data week builds toward Friday's September jobs report, the first payrolls read since the Fed's first hike since 2023. Micron reports Wednesday after guiding to a record quarter, and Nike reports Thursday, its first look at fiscal 2027 after a tariff-flattered Q4.
Week at a Glance
Week Highlight
Sept. Jobs Report Fri
Fed Backdrop
PCE Wed, Post-Hike Test
Chip Bellwether
Micron Wed
China Recovery Test
Nike Thu
01 · MACRO
A week built toward Friday
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence land Tuesday. Wednesday brings August core PCE and the third estimate of Q2 GDP, released alongside BEA's annual revisions. Thursday's ISM Manufacturing sets up Friday's September jobs report, the first payrolls read since the Fed's hike. The Trump-Xi summit ended without a broad trade breakthrough.
02 · EARNINGS
Micron and Nike carry the week
Micron reports Wednesday after the close against its own guidance for a record $50.0 billion ±$1.0 billion quarter. Nike reports Thursday after the close, its first report of fiscal 2027 after tariff refunds flattered fiscal Q4. Vail Resorts opens the week Monday after the close, and Carnival follows Tuesday morning.
03 · CONSUMER & GLOBAL
Near-record index, higher rate path
The S&P 500 enters the week 0.7% below its August record close. Consumer Confidence on Tuesday and the jobs report on Friday bookend a test of whether that level holds with the 10-year Treasury yield above 5% and the November 3 midterm elections ahead.
All times below are U.S. Eastern Time (ET). Company earnings are marked AM (before the market opens) or PM (after the market closes). Where a conference call starts at a different time, it is listed separately.
Macro Context
Markets enter the week just below record territory. The S&P 500 closed Friday, September 25 at 7,743.41, about 0.7% under its August 13 record close of 7,798.99. The Trump-Xi summit in Washington on Thursday, September 24 ended without a broad trade breakthrough, and Treasury yields have kept rising since the Fed's September 16 hike to 3.75–4.00%: the 10-year yield went from 5.01% on the day of the decision to 5.18% on September 24, the latest daily reading available. That leaves a familiar tension in place. Higher yields argue for lower valuations, while the market keeps paying for AI-driven productivity gains, and it is not yet clear which effect wins. The November 3 midterm elections add a background risk as the fourth quarter begins.
This week's data builds toward Friday. Tuesday brings the August JOLTS report, Consumer Confidence and July home-price data. Wednesday is dense: the ADP employment report, then August personal income and outlays with core PCE (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) and the third estimate of Q2 GDP. Both BEA releases arrive with the bureau's annual update, so earlier GDP and PCE figures will be revised the same morning. Chicago PMI follows. Thursday's Challenger job cuts and ISM Manufacturing PMI set up Friday's main event, the September jobs report, the first payrolls read since the Fed's first hike since 2023. On the earnings side, Vail Resorts reports Monday after the close, Carnival Tuesday morning, Micron Wednesday after the close against guidance for a record fiscal fourth quarter, and Nike Thursday after the close, its first quarter of fiscal 2027 after a fiscal Q4 flattered by an expected tariff refund.
S&P 500, daily close · Sep 11–25, 2026 (Actual). The index recovered from its FOMC-day low of 7,551.81 to close last week at 7,743.41, 0.7% below its August 13 record.
Y-axis spans 7,500–7,800 (about 4%) to keep day-to-day moves legible; it is not the index's full historical range. On narrow screens the chart scrolls sideways. Dashed line = September 25 close, the level the index enters this week from. Dotted line = record close of 7,798.99 (August 13, 2026).
Dallas Fed Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (September)
PM
MTN: Vail Resorts, FQ4 2026Ski resorts and leisure. After the close; call 17:00 ET.
TUE
09.29: Carnival, JOLTS & Consumer Confidence
AM
CCL: Carnival Corporation, Q3 2026Cruise operator. Results due that morning; call 10:00 ET.
09:00
FHFA House Price Index (July)
09:00
S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (July)
10:00
Consumer Confidence (September)Conference Board.
10:00
JOLTS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover (August)BLS.
WED ★
09.30: PCE, GDP & Micron
08:15
ADP National Employment Report (September)
08:30
Personal Income & Outlays incl. Core PCE Price Index (August) ★The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, two weeks after the first hike since 2023. Released with BEA's annual update, so prior months will be revised.
08:30
GDP, Q2 2026 (Third Estimate) & Corporate ProfitsAlso part of BEA's annual update of the national accounts.
09:45
Chicago PMI (September)
PM ★
MU: Micron Technology, FQ4 2026Memory semiconductors. After the close; call 16:30 ET. See spotlight below.
THU ★
10.01: ISM Manufacturing & Nike
05:30
Challenger Job Cuts (September)
10:00
ISM Manufacturing PMI (September) ★
10:00
Construction Spending (August)Census Bureau.
PM ★
NKE: Nike, Q1 FY2027Athletic footwear and apparel. Release about 16:15 ET, after the close; call 17:00 ET. See spotlight below.
FRI ★
10.02: The September Jobs Report
08:30
Employment Situation: Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate & Average Hourly Earnings (September) ★The first payrolls read since the Fed's hike to 3.75–4.00%.
10:00
Factory Orders (August, M3 Full Report)Census Bureau.
Micron's guidance calls for another large sequential step: the $50.0 billion midpoint is 20.6% above the $41.46 billion actual FQ3 revenue. Gross margin is guided to about 86% (GAAP and non-GAAP), above the 84.6% GAAP margin actually reported in FQ3, so the company is guiding for further expansion, not moderation. Management describes its multi-year Strategic Customer Agreements as something that will "significantly enhance the durability and predictability" of results. That is a management expectation, not a reported result. Wednesday tests whether revenue lands inside the $49–51 billion range and whether the roughly 86% margin holds.
Nike's fiscal Q4 earnings were flattered by an expected $986 million IEEPA tariff refund worth $0.52 per share. Without that benefit, Q4 EPS was $0.20 (Actual). On the June 30 call, management said it expects Q1 FY2027 revenue to be down low-to-mid single digits, with a further slowdown in Q2, and repeated that earnings should be flattish over the three quarters from Q4 FY2026 through Q2 FY2027, excluding the tariff recovery. These are call statements, not formal quarterly guidance. The first of those three quarters is already reported, so Thursday is the first real test of the rest of that reset. The key question is whether Greater China is stabilizing after an 11% reported (13% currency-neutral) decline for the full year.
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Key Earnings Charts
Micron reports fiscal Q4 2026 Wednesday after the close. Both charts below compare figures Micron has actually reported with the fourth-quarter guidance it issued on June 24, all from the same Micron release.
Micron GAAP gross margin (% of revenue), FQ3 2025–FQ3 2026 Actual vs. FQ4 2026 Guidance. Micron is guiding for roughly 86%, a further step up from the 84.6% it actually reported in FQ3, not a pullback.
Y-axis runs 0%–90%, starting at zero. Guidance is "approximately 86%" as stated by Micron; it is a point estimate, not a range.
Micron revenue ($B), FQ3 2026 Actual by business unit vs. FQ4 2026 Outlook. At the midpoint, guidance adds $8.54 billion on top of a quarter that was already a record, with Cloud Memory the largest unit in FQ3.
Y-axis runs $0B–$60B, starting at zero. The four business units sum to $41.448B; the remaining $0.008B of reported FQ3 revenue ($41.456B) is not assigned to a unit and is too small to draw. The hatched segment equals the FQ4 guidance midpoint ($50.0B) minus FQ3 actual revenue ($41.456B). That is our calculation for illustration, not a company-reported figure, and Micron does not guide by business unit. The bracket at right marks the full $49–51B guidance range.
Friday's September payrolls are the first jobs report since the Fed raised rates, with Tuesday's JOLTS and Thursday's Challenger data as the warm-up. A strong number could reinforce the hawkish dot plot; a weak one would quickly complicate it.
Inflation
Core PCE, the Fed's Own Gauge
Wednesday's reading lands two weeks after the hike and is the cleanest read yet on whether the committee's inflation concern is easing or hardening. BEA's annual update will revise earlier months the same morning, so compare against the revised history, not last month's print.
Memory Semiconductors & AI
Micron's Record Guide Faces Its Test
Micron reported $9.30 billion of revenue in FQ3 2025 (Actual) and guides to $50.0 billion ±$1.0 billion for FQ4 2026 (Guidance). Management's case for the Strategic Customer Agreements is meant to support the multiple; Wednesday's results will confirm or challenge it.
Consumer & China
Nike's Tariff-Flattered Quarter Unwinds
Strip out the one-time tariff benefit and Nike's Q4 EPS was $0.20, not $0.72 (both Actual). Thursday shows whether the turnaround is real or still mostly aspirational.
Geopolitics
The Trump-Xi Summit Falls Short
The September 24 White House summit between the US and Chinese leaders produced no broad trade breakthrough, leaving the underlying tension between the two sides largely where it was before.
Market Structure
Near-Record Highs, Midterm Risk Ahead
The S&P 500 closed last week 0.7% below its August 13 record while the 10-year yield sat above 5%. The November 3 midterm elections are an added source of risk heading into the fourth quarter.
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Selected Earnings Calendar
Ticker
Company
When (ET)
Notes
MTN
Vail Resorts
Mon PM
Ski resorts and leisure. After the close. Call 17:00 ET.
CCL
Carnival Corporation
Tue AM
Cruise operator. Results due that morning. Call 10:00 ET.
MU
Micron Technology
Wed PM
Memory semiconductors. After the close. Call 16:30 ET. See spotlight.
NKE
Nike
Thu PM
Athletic footwear and apparel. Release about 16:15 ET, after the close. Call 17:00 ET. See spotlight.
Figures marked ACTUAL are historical results as reported. Figures marked GUIDANCE or MGMT EXPECTATION are forward-looking company statements, not achieved results; statements from earnings calls are management expectations, not formal quarterly guidance. Third-party analyst estimates, price targets and implied-move figures have been omitted where they could not be verified against a primary source.
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